Statistician Magician

Moneyball, the misunderstood.

The other day, an analyst, or expert, whatever one wants to refer to them as.  Well, anyway, this “expert” stated that ‘Moneyball’ wasn’t simply showing us how to find that a slow, un-athletic player that can draw walks has value.  It was showing simply how to find an “undervalued” player.

At the time of course, Scott Hatteberg proved to be undervalued.

Scott Hatteberg would not however, be undervalued in today’s game.

So it isn’t that ‘Moneyball’ doesn’t work anymore, it is simply that it has changed.  There will always be ways to find cheaper contributers in the game of baseball.

The writer then went on to explain that defense is a lost art or whatever.  And eventually, it will be something else that general managers overlook, except for a select few.

‘Moneyball’ is still very real.  The perception that statistics are the only way to find baseball players, well, that is very false.

I am starting to understand more and more that Michael Lewis was simply a writer, not an expert on the game of baseball.

But did he have an “agenda” as some speak?  Or was he simply ignorant to the fact that there were other ways to win baseball games, not just Billy Beane’s way.  I mean, someone that isn’t exactly of expertise value on a subject, sits down, they learn things one way, and they might adopt it as the ONLY way to do things.

After all, it was the only style of baseball that was hammered into Lewis’ head for a long period of time.  I doubt Lewis has ever come close to any other style of baseball as much as he did with Billy Beane’s style.

The fact is, is that the book was a great, great book, which opened many of our eyes.  Anyone that said, “Statistics are the only meaningful way to evaluate baseball players.”  Or, “Athletic players are useless.”  Even perhaps, “Walks are more important than hits.”

Any of those above quotes would be completely and totally wrong.  And the point of ‘Moneyball’ the style, rather than the book would have been lost.

I for one, value players that are cheap AND effective.  Who doesn’t?  There is a very valid point to comparing Josh Willingham to Jason Bay.  It is not to say that Jason Bay is the inferior player, it is just to state that maybe a team could have used their resources better by grabbing Willingham instead of Bay.  But then again, in this day and age, with the internet available, that comparison isn’t much of a secret to begin with.

But for example, 20 years ago, people would have most likely chosen a player like Mike Jacobs over a Hatteberg, because he has the ability to hit the ball out of the park more often.

Nowadays, however, we realize that Hatteberg was the more valuable guy.  Getting on base was simply not looked at as much back in the day.

…And Mike Jacobs sucks.

Billy Benius strikes again.

Miguel Tejada back to his old terrain

The Orioles re-contractually obligated Miguel Tejada.  This is not a good move.

Of course, it is not a bad move either.  The Orioles needed a 3B and Tejada fills that void.  Sure, he has been living off of Houston’s friendly “pull-hitter” confines, but I guess it is conceivable that he isn’t as bad as his road stats.

The one thing that could happen.  Tejada COULD have a nice first half and be moved to a contender needing a versatile bat off the bench.

But the odds of Tejada hitting well, in the AL East, against the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays, pitching staffs, is, well, not good.

So the move seems to be more about a stop-gap at third, then potential trade bait.  Because Tejada just isn’t a good baseball player anymore.

But I’ve been surprised before…

Billy Benius strikes again:

Billy Beane is a magician.  He pulls things out of a hat…and simply wins ballgames.

Ok, that is a fallacy.

Beane got a lot of praise for winning with little money.

Now, he gets a lot of crap for losing with little money.

Billy Benius is a good GM.  He isn’t the best.  And his legend proceeded his actual ability.

So he hasn’t developed a hitter.  That is important.  A team cannot win playing terribly on one side of the ball.

But he also doesn’t have the money to sign anyone that we KNOW is going to hit well for an extended period of time.

Anyway, the A’s inked Ben Sheets.

Not a great move, but since they most likely intend on flipping him to a contender.  It should work out decent enough.

If he gets hurt three starts in, or sucks ten starts in.  Then that is the worst case scenario.

But I have a hunch that Beane wins this one.

And who knows, with some pitching and three center fielders roaming the ballpark, maybe they have an outside shot at contending.

Although, it would be nice to have someone with the ability to get a hit…

Sign Johnny Damon already

I hate the Yankees.  But I see an opportunity.  An opportunity to have the best team in baseball.

Of course, with either Brett the Jet Gardner OR Johnny Damon, they are the best on paper.

But they are better with Damon.

So can’t they just sign him to a one year, $8 million deal?

Any more than one year is debatable, because I don’t know what their future intentions are.  Maybe they are set on inking Carl Crawford next season.  And if so, Damon would be a really expensive fourth outfielder — albeit, a very good one.

So maybe there is a reason they don’t want to go two years.  And that is fine.

But if it is between another team scooping him up for a single year at say $5 or $ 6 mill, then why not fork over $7 or $8?

Damon is still a quality player, and unlike Gardner, you kind of know what you are going to get.

The Yankees should simply outbid for him, if we are talking about a one-year deal.  They have the money to do so, and should quit pretending like they don’t.

Schilling > Mo

So maybe this has little relevance to anything that matters, but Curt Schilling helped his teams win more ballgames than did Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time.

Why do I bring this up?

Because I was trying to prove a point to Father the other day.  That point being how much I, and several others, believe that the closer is overrated.

So we were in agreement, that, say, Pedro was better than Rivera.  Or that Clemens was better.  And I am sure that had the names come up, Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson and others, would have been agreed upon as well.

But I used Curt Schilling as a comparison because he wasn’t the greatest of his time.  And there are reasons why he shouldn’t be in the Hall, as well as reasons why he should.

But let me make this clear, I am a firm believer that Schilling is a Hall of Famer.

And this really isn’t about my Dad or the Hall of Fame.  It is about how much more valuable a starter is than a reliever, even a great reliever.

Curt Schilling’s career WAR was 69.7.  Rivera’s is 49.9.

That isn’t even close.

Rivera is the greatest closer we have ever seen, and is certainly the greatest of the one-inning variety.  When he comes in, I generally think “game over.”

Sometimes it crosses my mind that Rivera could walk a batter, give up a single, and another more luck-driven hit (seeing-eye single).

But even if that happened:  The walk would be one heck of an at bat by the guy standing at the plate.  The single would simply be what happens to every pitcher, they fail at times.  And the “luck-driven” hit would be, well, luck.

If a home run is hit off Rivera, it is a wow-moment.

That is how great the guy is, and how much respect I have for him.

Again:  Greatest.  Closer.  Of.  All.  Time.

Period

.

But that doesn’t mean that I take him over a great starter.

No way.  No how.

A great starter is significantly more valuable than a great closer.  And I am firmly entrenched in this belief.

Rivera’s ERA+ is incredible, best of all time among qualifying pitchers at 202.  Schilling’s falls in at only 127.

Granted, even Schilling’s much lower number is really great.  But the two numbers are far from being anywhere near “close.”

But Schilling has strewn his great numbers across over 3,000 innings.  Three times the amount that Rivera has thrown.

It is easier to come out of the bullpen.  And there is a reason why Rivera only uses one pitch, mainly, to get the job done.

Because I can tell you this, no starter could be great, relying on exclusively one pitch.  It just won’t happen.

That is why I believe that the sixth (tied) best starter of his generation is clearly more valuable than the greatest closer anyone has ever seen.

Gary Matthews > Roster spot ?

Gary Matthews Jr has a purpose.

He can play all three positions on the field.

That is really it.

Matthews can serve as a bench player who specializes in questionable defense at all three positions.  And the ability to switch hit.

Everyone knows that his contract was a terrible mistake.  One good season, and a hefty payday comes knocking on his door.

But every team makes mistakes, and the Angels obviously know what they are doing, as they experience success each and every season.

The Red Sox signed Julio Lugo.

The Yankees overpay for declining years.

The Royals overpay for garbage.

The Mets extended Luis Castillo.

The Cardinals gave Holliday seven years.

The Tigers traded Granderson and signed a reliever.

Get the point?  Every team makes a mistake here and there.

The Angels are no different.

But at least they addressed this mistake, finally, and unloaded him.  Because a roster spot might actually be more valuable than Gary Matthews is.

Not kidding, either.

But the Mets apparently value Gary’s versatility.  Enough so, that they don’t mind penciling him in for a spot on the 25 man roster, or at least it seems so.

After all, the Angels are picking up the tab (So they say).  And the Mets need a center fielder for the first month of the season anyway.

I guess it makes some sense.

But that doesn’t mean that Matthews Jr is greater than a roster spot.  It simply means that in this situation, due to injury, he may be.

I guess this isn’t a bad move, seeing how the Angels are forking over the paper.

But don’t read this wrong.  Matthews Jr is not a good baseball player.

Pineiro inks in a place other than anticipated.

Joel Pineiro goes where it’s warm

So the Angels saved money, but signed a pitcher that is worse, compared to John Lackey.

Two years, $16 million isn’t bad.  But remember, Pineiro isn’t exactly a great pitcher either.

In each of the three seasons previous to 09,’ he was worth under a win.  But then all of a sudden, apparently because of a “new arm slot,” he is all of a deemed “very good.”

Color me skeptical.

But really, the point is, he should be serviceable, so the contract shouldn’t be all that bad.  And of course there is the potential that he does sustain his new-found incredible ability to induce ground balls.

For Dave Duncan is not merely a mortal.  He is a God.

King Felix gets paid

Felix Hernandez is rich.  And deservedly so.

And now the Mariners don’t have to worry about trading him, because he is locked up for what should be the best years of his life.  Years that might be considered a historically great period looking back.

He IS that talented.

And with the Mariners emphasis on defense, and a pitcher friendly park, his numbers may look even better than they really are.

The Mariners did well.

The Mets are paying for nothing

Sure, Jeff Franceour may end up unlocking his potential.  Maybe he hits .290/.330/.530 this season and is worth more than he is paid.

But more realistically, maybe he hits .270/.300/.430 and is considered an awful player.

$5 million seems quite high for a player that is not good, not average, but well below-average, doesn’t it?

Again, maybe he figures everything out.  But if I was running a team I wouldn’t want to pay someone that sum of money for potential.

Because it could turn out *potentially* awful.

Fantasy Baseball.

I have tried and played fantasy baseball twice, not really enjoying it much at all.  Does anyone know where, or how to set up a fantasy baseball based strictly on ‘WAR?”

The statistics used in the fantasy teams that I have come across are terrible, so it takes the fun out.

Having players performance, based on one stat (WAR) would seem to be much more telling, and more fun.

Anyone?

Johnson agrees with Marlins/Yankees

Yankees agree to terms with Josh Johnson

So the Marlins are under contract for four years with their ‘Ace’ pitcher, Josh Johnson.  Two of which they will pay, and two of which the Yankees will probably pick up for a couple prospects.

So, New York, you now know that you will have to pay roughly $14 million for his services, and surrender a couple decent or better chips for his rights.

Adam Laroche intelligent?

There was much talk amidst the Adrian Beltre signing, that he was setting himself up for something bigger.

Big market, solid lineup, Giant beneficial wall to his pull-side.

So he takes a one-year deal from the Red Sox, in an attempt to post better numbers in a park that suits his style a little better.

Now he has financial security for 2010 (option), or he could sign a long-term deal after playing well for a season.

Well, Adam Laroche has just done the same thing.

Laroche turned down two years from the Giants, and settled on one season in Arizona.

Now, he has the opportunity to play in a hitters park for a season, and try to build up his stature — in hopes of a long-term deal.

Of course, this could simply have been stupidity.  Laroche thought he could get three years on the open-market, but turned out to be wrong.  That is definitely a very real possibility.

And he isn’t quite the player Beltre is.  His defense is solid, but at first.  While Beltre is a great defender, at a more important position.

So in terms of money, Beltre clearly has the greater opportunity.

But when talking about finances, it is the difference between what Laroche could have received, and what he WILL receive.

Will that be great enough of a return to allow this to be perceived as a smart move?

Maybe.

Raines vs. Gwynn.

Tim Raines reached base more than Tony Gwynn.

Alright, we freaking get it already.  Someone cherry-picked a statistic to favor Raines and help his Hall of Fame candidacy.

But “reaching base” is not always equivalent to, well, reaching base.

Gwynn batted .338!  Raines only .284.

Do we ignore this?

I get it, the argument is to say that Raines is worthy, not necessarily that he was better than Gwynn.  But sometimes it comes off as just that.

Gwynn led in ‘WAR’ by four wins (Don’t know how much ‘WAR’ accounts for a hit vs. a walk.  I would think that it would make the necessary adjustments).

But Gwynn batted 54 percentage points higher than Raines.  That is not trivial, as a matter of fact, it seems quite extreme.

And Gwynn didn’t exactly flash the power often, but it wasn’t as though Raines did either.  In fact, Raines slugged 34 points lower than Gwynn over their careers.

Of course, we can not eliminate baserunning and defense.

Raines was of course a much, much better base-runner.

And neither were particularly good fielders.

But the point to all this is that batting average shouldn’t be excluded.  Not to this degree…

Gwynn may be overrated in a sense, but he was a worthy induction, and by all accounts is probably the better player of the two.

McGwire mans up. Vlad impales $5 million.

McGwire cheated:

I guess I should touch up on McGwire’s admittance, since I do write a blog about baseball.

Good for him.  No matter how lame he sounded at Congress, he came out and — I believe — gave us more of an admission than anyone else has.  Nearly ten years worth of off and on use — which may simply be when one cycle’s on and off — but nevertheless, it was much greater a time period than any other.

And let us be realistic, many of the players that have admitted have probably given us the minimum that they needed to.

But McGwire did not.

So kudos to him.

As for him not being given “immunity,” well, I am not all that caught up on the legality of such an issue.  But I guess it could make sense, and putting his family in jeopardy would be something any man — or woman — would want to avoid.

But regardless, McGwire took a step in the right direction.  And although he may never see the Hall of Fame — and may never have seen it anyway — he will be seen as a better person in the public eye.

Rangers sign Vlad Guerrero:

I wouldn’t say I like this signing, but I don’t dislike it either.

Vlad should DH all the time.  Not only is his defense sub-par nowadays, but he also needs to maintain his health by moving as little as possible.

$5 million is worth taking the risk on a bat, a veteran bat that isn’t necessarily finished.  And the park will definitely help him, but the park seems to help anyone.  So Vlad should produce, but his numbers will probably look better than his skill-set — at an older age — would typically allow.