Is Matt Cain really any better this season?

Written by Joe Veno on June 27, 2009 – 10:51 AM -

Seriously.

His peripherals are all slightly worse.  But Cain’s ERA sits at 2.57

Now, I don’t doubt the guy’s stuff.  Or his potential.  But his FIP is higher this season, his HR’s/9 are higher, his K’s are lower, his BB’s roughly the same.

And his LOB% is an unsustainable 86.7%.  Meaning that allowing base-runners will eventually lead to more runs.

Oh, and the BABIP is .266.  Meaning that balls will fall in more often moving forward, while those base-runners are making homes on the base-paths.  Nothing great is being shown by Cain in the numbers.  Not that I see anyway.

Good?  Why yes.  But his ERA suggests that he’s been great.  And while Cain has a great fastball that retrieves very good results.  His slider and curve have not been effective this season.  Although to be fair, his change-up has been solid.

Matt Cain is a great talent, any scout will tell you that.  But I am not so sure that he’s a great pitcher just yet.  The numbers show that struggles will begin to take place for the youngster.

But don’t get me wrong, for this guy has all the potential in the world.

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Posted in Player Analysis, San Francisco Giants | 6 Comments »

6 Comments to “Is Matt Cain really any better this season?”

  1. Mike F Says:
    June 27th, 2009 at 1:49 PM

    perhaps the key word here is “slightly” -referring to your first sentence. but more importantly maybe we should just focus on the fastball and change up. He clearly IS getting results from his pitching so perhaps he is making the necessary adjustments to keep his game at a high level. Not to be contrary, but when i hear a statement of ” The numbers show that struggles will begin to take place for the youngster.” that makes me bristle just a bit. perhaps you might temper your directive with something like struggles *may* begin. or do you really stand by that statement? that the numbers are absolute?

    i wrote a piece on brett gardner today–i’m curious about your take on it…

  2. Mike F Says:
    June 27th, 2009 at 2:10 PM

    oh and i was trying to find out how many pitches gardner is seeing per PA but couldn’t find that. can you help?

  3. Joe Veno Says:
    June 27th, 2009 at 2:16 PM

    Well, I think the ERA will start to go up. That is what I meant. So yes, I stand by that statement :) I actually do like Cain, and what he should become, a lot though. I just don’t think his ERA matches up with the rest of the stuff. But I am no scout, you know that.

  4. Joe Veno Says:
    June 27th, 2009 at 2:19 PM

    As for pitches per plate appearance. I always use ESPN for that. Here is the link to Gardner:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=29174

    And here is the link to the leaderboard which you can mess around with and compare Gardner to the rest of the league:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=al&season=2009&seasonType=2&sort=pitchesPerPlateAppearance&type=exp&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all&startDate=null&endDate=null&minpa=0

  5. Joe Veno Says:
    June 27th, 2009 at 2:20 PM

    Sorry, i didn’t make that clear. I didn’t think Cain will struggle necessarily. I just think he will struggle a little more.

  6. Mike F Says:
    June 27th, 2009 at 3:21 PM

    thanks for that- i never look at espn but i will from now on

    so he’s seeing 4.05 P/Pa which ties him for #18 in the AL with Peralta

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