How about trading Papelbon?
Written by Joe Veno on June 28, 2009 – 11:50 AM -Sometimes I like to think outside the box.
Being inside the box all the time, well, it can get a tad boring. Because being “inside the box” doesn’t have much creativity, much adventure. It doesn’t always take many chances. I can sit there and attempt to bring you the information through statistics, but it isn’t always fun for me. Especially when I am writing a blog about Chad Gaudin.
Yes, Chad Gaudin.
Former A, Cub, and current Padre. I know, it does get that boring for me sometimes.
But here is a suggestion, an exploration.
How about trading Jonathan Papelbon?
Look, I understand the hesitance among many when discussing a subject like this. Discussing a role that, really, is still valued in a way that many feel uncomfortable with. But I, on this hand, this hand right here in front of me, do not value the closer highly. Or at least not as high as many that think a team’s success is so dependent upon how great the closer is.
It isn’t that I don’t think Papelbon is great, and it’s not that I believe that he isn’t an important piece to the Red Sox success.
I do.
But since I may even undervalue the closer, and feel strongly that some general manager out there will overpay for that dominant “Closer,” that sense of late-inning security. Then this would be the reason that I am exploring the subject to begin with. That and the fact that Papelbon will eventually want huge dollars that would be considered “overpayment for services rendered.”
And remember, this doesn’t have to take place right now. It could be “explored” after the season concludes. Messing with success isn’t always the best way to go about things.
But what could the Red Sox acquire in exchange for Jonathan Papelbon? Their future catcher plus another good prospect? A young starter and a position player prospect? Carlos Santana?
I really don’t know. But I have a feeling that someone can be duped into thinking they need a dominant late inning guy, even if the cost be too much from an outsiders view.
Again, “dominant late inning guy” is a great piece of the puzzle. But it isn’t worth what I feel Pap could retrieve.
I do however understand that doing anything with this right now could be messing with the perfect formula. The Red Sox are playing great, the bullpen is a strength (a serious strength), and Papelbon–even though the walks are ridiculous right now (4.36/9)–will eventually get his “stuff” together.
When Papelbon first came up, in 2005, he was decent enough. But as many young pitchers struggle, so did Papelbon. And what he did then, results wise, is eerily similar to what he is doing now.
In that 2005 season, Papelbon struck out 9.00 per nine, walked 4.50 per nine, and gave up 1.06 homers per game-frame. That results in an FIP of 4.31.
Well, get this. His numbers are scary identical in 2009. 9.00 K’s per nine, 4.50 BB’s per nine, 1.09 homers, and an FIP of 4.27.
Tell me that isn’t strange.
And for some reason, each year starting in 2006, we have seen a decrease in the use of the split-finger fastball. It is now down to being used 9.3%. As we are aware, the split has been demoted. But it really isn’t for the slider. No, the slider is being used roughly the same amount of time.
It is still–as you may have heard–being demoted for the fastball.
Papelbon throws his fastball 80% of the time. I know, a little too much. He has good secondary stuff (split, slider), but he chooses not to use it. Sure, the fastball is easily the best pitch. But he’s not Marinao Rivera. he doesn’t have a devestating, near unhittable cut-fastball. So the reliance on the fastball, which has been getting harder this season, isn’t logical. It is not logical to rely on one pitch so heavily. Not when the results aren’t there.
And commanding the fastball, controlling it, would help resolve this situation some, help ease the numbers back to where they should be.
But don’t take this the wrong way. This isn’t written in subjective fury. I am not simply suggesting a trade for the sake of doing it, or for the sake of giving into my frustrations.
I am suggesting this because losing Papelbon would avoid having to go through contract negotatiations with a player that will probably be so far away from reality that the deal will probably never get done. And I am suggesting it because it could very much “better” the team down the road, addressing possibly two positions of need.
Jonathan Papelbon is a great closer. And his struggles will go away assuming he’s in good health. But if you live by the theory that “no one is untradeable.”
Then, how about exploring a trade of Papelbon?
Tags: Boston Red Sox, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, New York YankeesPosted in Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Player Analysis, Rants | 22 Comments »
June 28th, 2009 at 10:04 PM
Closers in general are over-valued. But not to the extent most analysts think because while they don’t pitch enough innings to be worth a ton of money, a good bullpen allows a team to greatly over-achieve. 2008 LA Angels anyone?
June 28th, 2009 at 10:08 PM
I’m of the belief that nobody on any club is ”untouchable”. There’s only 1 player in the Braves organization that if I were GM I wouldn’t listen to any offers on and that player is Jason Heyward. Nobody is untouchable, they just can’t be bought cheap. And if someone is willing to overpay for Papelbon, the Red Sox should certainly consider it.
By the way, Chad Gaudin has allowed only 1 hit and 3 total baserunners through 7 scoreless innings tonight with 8 K’s. So you heard it here first, Gaudin was due for a good outing.
June 28th, 2009 at 10:57 PM
Chad Gaudin update:
He pitched a perfect 8th striking up a batter giving him the win. His final line was 8.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 9 K.
June 28th, 2009 at 11:35 PM
Thanks. After you posted that comment, I saw the final line as they flashed it in the Yankees/Mets game. I told everyone that he was better than his ERA!
June 28th, 2009 at 11:42 PM
Mariano Rivera’s line: 0-0, 1 BB, 1 RBI. Oh yeah, he’s pitching too.
June 28th, 2009 at 11:56 PM
what a great game for mariano-
the question for pap is why in fact is he NOT throwing more splitties?
June 29th, 2009 at 8:23 AM
Possible explanation: splitters are very hard on your arm. Considering his mechanics scream, “I’m going to need Tommy John!”, maybe the Red Sox told him not to throw as many in hopes of him staying healthy longer.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:37 AM
Splitters being “hard” on your arm was my conclusion to. That is the only explanation I would say, because the split is a nice compliment to his fastball.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:52 AM
well maybe they are hard on your arm, but not using it is hard on his results…
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 PM
I say trade him. The Sox closer of the future is Daniel Bard. Bard’s future is bright once he figures out how to handle the pressure in Boston.
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 PM
The closer role in baseball is a over and under valued role on a club. it is overvalued because of the crapshoot that is the reliver postion. teams will over pay to bring in guys who have had some success in the attempts at catching lightning in a bottle because really you can say that almost every bullpen pitcher is one year away from turning it around or totally crashing and burning. the closers role is undervalued because is there really a price you wouldn’t pay to have the peace of mind in the ninth that a dominate closer brings. Some will say that a group of decent relivers can get the job done but if you look at the case of the 2008 mets or the 2003 red sox bullpens by committee just don’t work. last year the mets didn’t win a single one nothing game, this year they have already won 3. whats the difference between now and then….K-Rod. sure the mets are still struggling but does that really shock anybody. The main point i’m trying to make is that no amount of unproven 20 year olds can help the red sox win a world series right now, which by the way is the point of the game last time i checked. And i would also like to remind you of the incerdible arms already in the sox farm system. so in conclusion trading paplebon = retarted
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:21 PM
I agree that closers are generally overvalued in baseball. The Sox have a great bullpen as it is, so it makes sense that a guy like Papelbon can be traded. They’ll be able to close out most games anyway.
You’re forgetting something crucial though. Why would they want to trade him? What needs would they be filling by trading him? The only needs they’re looking at are SS and catcher. Frankly they don’t need a young pitching prospect enough right now with Buccholz and Bowden and Tazawa waiting impatiently in the minors. Maybe they could use a Victor Martinez or Carlos Santana or perhaps a stud shortstop… but dont you think a team like the Indians would prefer a young Clay Buccholz over a soon-to-be free big money free agent like Papelbon?
The biggest reason the Red Sox will not trade Jonathon Papelbon: The man has a career postseason ERA of 0.00 in 25 IP.
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:59 PM
Robert,
Personally I feel more comfortable waiting until the end of the season. But since it seems unlikely the Red Sox will dish out the kind of money Pap wants, it might be wise to get something in return.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:01 PM
Kevin,
Thanks for stopping by. First, this was just hypothetical. Second, if we would trade him, it would be at the end of the season, preferably. Even I don’t feel comfortable moving an arm in such a great bullpen right now.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:03 PM
“And remember, this doesn’t have to take place right now. It could be “explored” after the season concludes. Messing with success isn’t always the best way to go about things.”
This is from my post, Eric. So I do not really want to trade him either (right now). I am mostly talking about after the season and ONLY for a great return.
July 3rd, 2009 at 6:06 PM
I should’ve warned you that the Baseball Blogs Weigh In crowd usually doesn’t read the article and leaves nasty comments haha.
July 3rd, 2009 at 6:12 PM
Yea, I figured…
July 3rd, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Seriously, I just got a comment after yours that said “You are an idiot. 100% idiot.” From “Genius”
For suggesting trading a guy after the year, hypothetically? People seemed to have missed the point of “exploration.”
July 3rd, 2009 at 8:14 PM
Oh man, you should see some of the ones I get. Immaturity runs rampant.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:43 AM
1. I think closers are usually overrated just because they have a boatload of saves the same was starters are overvalued if they have a ton of wins.
2. I think closers in general are overrated.
3. I think the closer role is a bit messed up: If a closer is a teams best reliever why does he almost exclusively pitch the end of games. For example, if my team is up by a run in the top of the eighth and the opposing team has their 3,4,5 guys coming up, do I want my best reliever or my second best reliever? In many cases a closer is just a valuable as a setup man, but gets saves instead of holds and is standing on the mound at the end of the game.
July 4th, 2009 at 8:17 AM
Ben,
This is exactly what I was thinking the other night when the Orioles made that great comeback. Bases loaded no outs I believe in the 8th, bring Pap in. But they didn’t. They used him later in the inning (and he actually gave up the go ahead runs). But had he come in earlier it might have been different. And this wasn’t just hindsight…
July 7th, 2009 at 11:24 PM
[...] Daniel Bard on the scene, it’s tempting to see him as a future closer. A recent blog post raises the question Red Sox Nation would rather not consider: trade [...]