If the A’s were only five games out…
Written by Joe Veno on July 1, 2009 – 9:42 AM -If the A’s weren’t so miserable to begin the season, then things may be looking quite optimistic if they were say, five games out of first.
The Angels are an above-average team, with a few flaws. But they are not a great team, and can be caught.
The Mariners are not good. Decent at best, yet their record suggests even a little better than that.
The Rangers are solid, it seems. But even they feel like a year away kind of team. As their farm is deeper than most farms. But they will probably hang around for a while, if nothing else.
The AL West run differentials:
Angels +21
Rangers +15
Mariners -15
Athletics -35
That -35 is not as bad as one might think.
First, their pythagorean record is 34-41, slightly higher than their actual record of 32-43.
Second, they are a team full of under-achievers.
I know that Billy Beane sometimes allows us the impression that whatever he puts on the field should work. Whatever “Moneyball” signings he inks should turn out, because they did so at the beginning of his tenure. But this isn’t really about Beane’s “genius.” It is about the personnel on the field. And although this team was a .500, maybe slightly better team on paper, they have simply not performed that way.
A player such as Giambi had an atrociously good season in 2008. His OPS+ was 128, once again posting a very high OBP (.373), and Slugging .500. Those numbers are good, even for a defensively inept first baseman. But looking beyond that–and keep in mind that either way Giambi had at worst a solid year–there were definite flaws in his game. One being the aforementioned shoddy defense that he displayed at first. Maybe not the worst defender at the position, but below-average. But Giambi never seemed to come through when it mattered. And maybe this isn’t a “skill” as much as it is luck, but it counts nonetheless. His OPS with runners in scoring position was .692. And his OPS in “late and close” situations was a putrid .596.
Now, maybe that is all luck. Or most of it luck anyway. But regardless, his hits didn’t come at the most opportune of times. And that should matter a little, right?
But aside from that, again, Giambi had a solid season with the Yanks in 2008. So bringing him in, even at age 38, made sense. Especially, for only $4 million. And he has to be better than this right? An OPS+ of 93 for a first baseman that doesn’t add anything defensively? Yea, he is better than that. I am not sure how much better though.
But the risk was worth it. And the A’s have on their hands either a player that is simply finished, or a player that has simply “under-achieved” thus far.
Orlando Cabrera was brought in to shore up the defense at a premium position. His bat was suspect at this point, but his glove was still sufficient. And we all know how much shortstop defense matters in this game. But this season, Cabrera has posted a UZR of -7.6. So what? All of a sudden Cabrera can’t field? Is that a statistical flaw in UZR? I am not sure, but he shouldn’t just become a terrible SS in the blink of an eye. And his .247/.291/.318 line is miserable, just miserable. He’s below the Mendoza line in OBP, and his power numbers are like an injured Julio Lugo. Cabrera was brought in on a one year deal. One year! Very good move for a team that was in desperate need for a healthy SS in the post-starting-Booby Crosby-era.
Nomar Garciaparra was finished, basically. Still a solid move bringing him in. But he’s been plagued by injuries, again, and that should have been expected. His OPS+ of 73 is terrible, and he’s spent more time away from the dugout then actually in it. That is not underachieving, that is simply what Nomar is. Maybe if he gets back on the field, his numbers will improve, but that “maybe” is as big as anything in Nomar’s case.
Matt Holliday has started to hit, but he is not what anyone expected…except me and the naysayers of Colorado production. But even I understand that Holliday is adjusting to a new league, and a new environment, and really a new life. So more of a sample will be needed to come to a conclusion about Matt. However, I felt all along that Holliday would experience a little bit of struggling in his new “home.” And with the A’s having little margin for era to begin with, it was just something that couldn’t really happen if the A’s were expecting to contend. Holliday is hitting .277/.373/.431, which is solid. But those power numbers are definitely sub-par for a corner outfielder.
Even “three true outcome” all star Jack Cust has been fairly useless. His .222/.310/.406 line is everything that he has not been in the past. High OBP? Gone. Power? Gone. Average? Well, that isn’t too far off. But his numbers, and the fact that he’s not helpful defensively, well, add up to him being awful. If he can walk, homer and strikes out along the way, then fine. But he’s not doing the first two.
The Oakland bench has been about as terrible as can be. The highest OPS+ of anyone residing on the bench is 73. That is 27 percent below the average hitter. Bobby Crosby has been less than even the sup-par Crosby we are used to. Etc, etc, etc. The bench is horrendous.
Again, little could go wrong for the A’s, and yet everything that could go wrong, has.
The pitching has been good. Well, the FIP part of it anyway. The Athletics currently have the third best FIP in the American League, behind only the Red Sox and the Royals (?). And contributions from young starters Dallas Braden, Vin Mazzaro and Josh Outman have been spectacular. However, yet another setback occurred when Outman was placed on the 60 day DL just a few days back. Another notch in the “things gone wrong” belt for Billy Beane and the A’s.
If the Athletics were only five games out, things would be looking okay. They could expect Giambi to at least do better. They could expect Cust to improve. They could expect to Cabrera to do something right I would imagine. And they would be within striking distance of teams that may be solid, but are from uncatchable, far from great. The A’s would be a trade away from perhaps taking the division.
But they aren’t five games out. They are double-digit games out. And they have dug themselves in too big a hole to realistically climb out of. Sure, I mean, it could happen. but it probably won’t. So Billy Beane finds himself in a position that he very much knew he might be in. A position where Matt Holliday needs to be moved. A position that shouldn’t really be explored until Holliday can boost his trade value a little higher. Another month of an .850 OPS will at least increase the numbers a little, and teams in discussions will believe Holliday is at least a little less a product of Coors Field.
Five games out feels like an eternity from now…
Tags: Anaheim Angels, Billy Beane, Bobby Crosby, Dallas Braden, Jack Cust, Jason Giambi, Josh Outman, Matt Holliday, Moneyball, Nomar Garciaparra, Oakland Athletics, Orlando Cabrera, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Vin MazzaroPosted in Oakland Athletics, Team Analysis, Uncategorized | 4 Comments »
July 1st, 2009 at 4:08 PM
The creators of UZR caution us against using partial seasons of it to draw conclusions from. But just watching O-Cab, he’s been terrible. And +/- doesn’t disagree.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:16 PM
Do you have access to plus/minus right now? Because I have heard about the UZR thing, but I thought I had nothing else available…
July 1st, 2009 at 4:18 PM
I get it from http://www.billjamesonline.net/. Not sure if it can be found on a free site. O-Cab has cost the A’s 16(!) runs at SS this season according to +/-.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:20 PM
I don’t have the subscription.