Does Scott Rolen have an outside shot at the Hall?
Written by Joe Veno on July 3, 2009 – 8:12 AM -An outside shot? For injury-prone 3B Scott Rolen? I’d say so.
His career WARP1 is 82.1. Granted, that is just a number. And granted, Jim Rice DID play a corner outfield spot, rather than third. But already, Rolen has a stronger case than Rice. According to WARP, it isn’t even close. And since Rolen is one of the greatest defenders to ever play the position, he has a huge leg up over Rice who manned a corner spot of the outfield, and wasn’t exactly “prolific” at “manning” it.
There have been statements where people around baseball have referred to Rolen as being as good, if not better than Mike Schmidt with the glove. A definite compliment. Schmidt may be the best player the position has ever seen, and probably is. But on one side of the ball, Rolen is very comparable to the other great Phillies 3B.
The thing that hurts Rolen most is his counting numbers. Currently, he has 278 home runs. And even though he is having a very good season right now (.333/.394/.494, 1.6 UZR), he is already 34, and injuries have plagued him for a while now. So adding to those counting numbers will be difficult, given the circumstances.
His offensive numbers are very good, though, over his career up to date, .284/.371/.501, OPS+125. So it isn’t the rate stats, and it definitely isn’t the defense. It is those pesky counting numbers, the longevity, games played, etc. Rolen will have 2,000+ hits when his career ends. And he could end up with about 350 home runs, possibly a few more. So those numbers—even though, again, the rate numbers are really good–just aren’t all that convincing.
Now, I am not one that’s going to fret over 3,000 hits, or 500 home runs as marks that need to be met in order to be Hall of Fame worthy. But Rolen will need to get closer to 2,500 hits and 400 homers to have a chance with the voters. Dustin Pedroia was an example that the voters–as he won the MVP–are gaining the knowledge that the stat guys have been inducing upon them for most of the decade. Pedroia was very good defensively (undervalued in recent years). He wasn’t a great home run hitter, etc.
Of course, I could be mistaken. Although Pedroia was deserving, he could possibly have been voted in because he almost won the batting title, or because he got hot late, etc. It may not have had much to do with his defense after all. But I like to think it did.
Anyway, if they have begun to include defense more so in their evaluation of a player, then Rolen might get a second look. His 203 “Fielding Runs Above Average” is pretty solid if you ask me.
And his reputation with the glove really supersedes any number, as the voters are more of the “feel” type anyway, rather than the “dig deeper and do research” type. For the same reason Jim Rice’s candidacy has shrunk in my eyes each year, Rolen’s could grow if the Buster Olney’s of the world sit down and spend a few hours researching his case, trying to come up to a conclusion.
Because a great defender, with really good offensive numbers may get a shot after all, assuming he can add some to those counting numbers before his career is all said and done.
Tags: Boston Red Sox, Dustin Pedroia, Jim Rice, Mike Schmidt, Philladelphia Phillies, Scott Rolen, St Louis CardinalsPosted in Boston Red Sox, Historical, Philadelphia Phillies, St Louis Cardinals, Uncategorized | 6 Comments »
July 4th, 2009 at 12:29 AM
isn’t Rolen a great example of a really solid baseball player-both offensively and defensively. he reminds me of guys from another era–even though i wasn’t around then. but he should be an exemplar of the kind of player that indeed should NOT be in the hall of fame. despite his prowess with the glove etc . he just isn’t in the elite echelon, is he?
July 4th, 2009 at 12:33 AM
oh–and about the mighty mite– as you might remember i was all for him getting the MVP -mostly because he went against the prototype. i want the non “bashers” to be in the conversation. i hope it continues. though this year it will probably go to a new “basher” your boy mauer–if it doesn’t go to longo…
July 4th, 2009 at 12:34 AM
He’s close. But yes, I can see why someone wouldn’t want him in the Hall. Once his career is finished his case should be close to borderline. Although ultimately, I think he calls short.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:35 AM
You mean Lugo? haha. He had the game winning hit Wednesday! A routine ground ball that got by an infield that was in.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:42 AM
everytime lugo seems to be out of friends-out of options and out of luck he pulls one of those… hahah
NO– The Mighty Mite has always been my name for DP. even when he wasn’t so mighty
July 4th, 2009 at 12:43 AM
Yea, I was referring to “Longo” But I know that you meant Longoria.