How good is Adrian Gonzalez?
Written by Joe Veno on July 30, 2009 – 8:30 PM -In 62 games, Adrian Gonzalez has a line of .254/.331/.442 against American League teams. Now, that could be due to pitching Gonzalez has rarely faced, or it could be due to the fact that the AL is simply stronger than the NL, and has been in the years that Gonzalez has been a player in the National League. I eliminated the games in which Gonzalez was with the Rangers because it was so long ago, and he was so young, that it really isn’t fair to hold it against him.
Gonzalez also struggles with the breaking stuff, at least to a small extent. And a move to the AL would only force Adrian to see more sliders and curves coming his way. His “wSL/c” is -1.16, and his “wCB/C” is -0.83. Both sub-par, but neither should be looked into too much as even Albert Pujols struggles a tad with the curve ball. But a healthy dose of these two pitches will be seen more in the AL, if that is in fact, a fact (that fastballs are thrown more often in the NL).
I mention this because Gonzalez has been rumored as a possible acquisition for the Red Sox. And I am a bit wary as to how a transition from the weaker NL West to the superior AL East will effect Gonzalez’s production.
Getting him out of Petco will no doubt allow people to see what kind of player he is. Because Petco supresses every hitters power. And I mean every hitter. His career line at home is an unimpressive (for a 1B) .260/.350/.443. But on the road, now that is a different story. Gonzo away from home has hit .293/.362/.552. That my friends, is impressive. Seeing how a player will generally find comfort at home, it shows just how much of an impact Petco has on a hitters numbers. Gonzalez on the road is simply a superstar, while at home, he is average.
Fenway would be kind to him, very kind. 50 percent of his fly balls to the outfield have been hit to left and center field. Something that would most likely give him great numbers, assuming the quality of opponent does not get in the way that much (AL vs. NL).
As for his defense, it may be slightly overrated if the metrics are accurate. I have heard “best defensive 1B” in the game, and things of that nature. But none of the metrics seem to suggest that. His +/- the last three seasons is not ranked in the top ten. And his UZR is okay, but nothing great. So anyone that believes in these metrics, as I do to some extent, may see a guy that is a capable defender, but far from great.
Again, I say all this because Gonzalez may be on the move. And if so, he will probably have to deal with more breaking stuff. But how will he adjust? Will the additional men on base in a real big league lineup increase his performance? Will he use the wall as much as we think he can?
There is little doubt that Gonzo would perform well in the AL East. I am just unsure how well…
Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego PadresPosted in Player Analysis, San Diego Padres | 9 Comments »
July 30th, 2009 at 8:54 PM
Similar Batter: Adam LaRoche (947)
Oh, the irony.
I still say no. Although Pena, among others, proved the exceptional surprise, and to a lessor extent Ortiz did as well, I have no interest in BOS selling the farm for a slugger looking to join his 4th team in 9 years.
July 30th, 2009 at 8:59 PM
I like the idea of adding him, but how much? And are you referring to Carlos Pena? Well, Gonzo is already really good, if not great. So at least they will be getting a player that can change a game…
July 30th, 2009 at 9:10 PM
Gonzo is great. He really is. The man gets no protection and plays in a humongous park. And still puts up those numbers.
July 30th, 2009 at 9:13 PM
I believe you. I am just uncertain how the AL East will treat him. Would he still be great? Or merely *good*?
July 30th, 2009 at 9:22 PM
Don’t know. He does play in the NL, but the NL west isn’t exactly weak on pitching. Lincecum, Cain, Randy Johnson, Cook, Jimenez, Kershaw, Billingsley, Wolf, Haren, Scherzer… you get the idea. Plus the transition is tougher on pitchers, especially starters, and not as tough on hitters.
July 30th, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Yes, Carlos.
I like the idea of adding him too, but at what cost has already been answered, I believe. Reportedly, it’s a lot, a whole lot. As it should be; the guy is cheap and powerful.
If he played 3rd, SS or C my opinion would be different, but 1st? no dice (and, yes, I’m fully aware that Youk could slide over and play an adequate 3rd)
July 30th, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Allow me to cherrypick (pitchers).
Gonzo vs Lincecum: .469 OPS
Gonzo vs Cain: .931 OPS
Gonzo vs Jimenez: .476 OPS
Gonzo vs Kershaw: .543 OPS
Gonzo vs Billingsley: .712 OPS
Gonzo vs Haren: .693 OPS
July 30th, 2009 at 9:54 PM
Is that career or this year?
July 30th, 2009 at 9:55 PM
Career. Probably a few puny samples in there, as well.