Does the Hall of Fame ever include Vlad Guerrero?

Written by Joe Veno on August 11, 2009 – 9:56 PM -

After Vlad Guerrero clubbed his 400th homer, people are talking, whispers are whispering, journalists are journaling.  And what they are talking about, thankfully, is not steroids.  Because for the past decade or so, everything Hall of Fame seems to include all that other junk too.

But is Guerrero worthy?  Is he worthy of being in the same place for eternity, a place that includes Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and the greatest of them all:  Jim Rice?  Is he going to have done enough to deserve induction?

Let’s get the numbers out of the way:

WARP1:  69.4

OPS+:  146

Line:  .322/.387/.571

Vlad needs more time however.  Although at first glance it seems that he will have enough to be enshrined into the Hall one day.  After all, he was a great player for many seasons.  Never one to take a walk…or lay off a pitch even if it is out of the zone.  Vlad raked, and I mean raked for several seasons.  Some were lost in Montreal, as he wasn’t recognized nearly enough.  But then he took his show to the national stage as the Angels actually had talent to surround him, and they were good enough to give him postseason AB’s.

Although, Guerrero has been horrendous in his postseason chances.  A .240/.329/.293 line.  Small postseason chances should not be emphasized too much into the equation.  However, they should be emphasized to an extent.  The games mean more, and Vlad hurt his team in those games.

His defense hasn’t been good, according to UZR.  First, positional adjustment (corner OF) hurts him a little.  And those UZR numbers are almost always in the negative, at least dating back to 2002.  A liability though?  I doubt that.  Not through his healthy years at least.  Now, different story, as he almost has to be a DH.  But he did have a cannon for an arm, and I have a difficult time believing he was truly atrocious out in right.

The main statistic that should be focused on is WARP.  It’s a cumulative metric, and takes into account both sides of the ball.  I like that.  I like when defense and offense are accounted for into one nice little measure :)

So his WARP is better than the vaunted Jim Rice’s, which was 58.

But 69 with a few good years left in him, will potentially be enough, if it isn’t already.  Edgar Martinez finished with roughly the same OPS+–although to be fair, Vlad’s will only decline some as he ages.  But Vlad also added an element, even though it was probably sub-par–by playing defense.  Something that Edgar didn’t do.

So is Vlad going to be a Hall of Famer?  I think so.  No one noticed much until he came to the Angels, but he was truly great in Montreal as well.

Your thoughts?

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Posted in Anaheim Angels, Hall of Fame | 2 Comments »

2 Comments to “Does the Hall of Fame ever include Vlad Guerrero?”

  1. PWHjort Says:
    August 12th, 2009 at 10:38 AM

    I think so. Question: what do you think about Helton’s HOF possibilities? Just so difficult to judge due to Coors Field.

  2. Joe Veno Says:
    August 12th, 2009 at 12:29 PM

    I lean towards no on Helton. His home/road splits are just too different. It makes me, and many others, think that at least the Hall of Fame numbers are part of the “Coors Field” creation. Although regardless, he was a very good player.

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